It Only Seems Predictable in Hindsight

We look at the many economic crises and lament why we were unaware of them; when we look at history, we lament why no one took any action. But living in that era, the future is utterly opaque. Afterward, everything looks easy and predictable, and people look foolish.

In investment, too, actually investing directly is truly different from looking at the chart afterward. Being inside is different from viewing from the outside.

• If the Dot-com Bubble hadn't burst, wouldn't it have remained for us as the New Economy?
• Dr. Im Yong-han said that after about two generations had passed since the end of the Imjin War, people would say, "Why were our ancestors so incompetent? If only I had been born a little earlier, I could have saved the world."
• The IMF crisis also seems simple and easy in hindsight. The The Subprime Mortgage Crisis is the same. Everything always seems easy to understand after the fact.

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Topics: Metacognition,Black Swan,Hindsight Bias
Category: Evergreen
Status: Ever/Branch

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