Hindsight Bias
Before explaining, let us first read the following examples of a literature review based on many studies of American soldiers who fought in World War II.
- The more educated a soldier is, the harder it is to adapt to war conditions. In other words, elite intellectuals suffer more war-related stress than street-smart hustlers.
- Compared with soldiers from the northern United States, soldiers from the South adapt better to combat in hot weather.
- Because oppression from racial discrimination negatively affects achievement motivation, white soldiers show more interest in promotion and advancement than Black soldiers.
- Black soldiers from the South prefer white officers from the South over white officers from the North, because Southern whites are more accustomed to interacting with Black people.
The statements above are bound to seem like "obvious common sense that anyone would know." Doesn't it seem outrageous that researchers kept drawing expensive research grants to uncover such obvious common sense? However, those statements are the exact opposite of the results found through actual experiments. The less educated had a harder time adapting to war conditions, and even those from the South did not easily maintain combat effectiveness in tropical climates. In addition, Black soldiers tended to be more eager for promotion than white soldiers. The funny thing is that if we encounter the actual findings 'first', we likewise respond with "Isn't that obvious?"
In short, this is the bias version of Columbus's egg. That is, hindsight bias refers to the reaction—no matter what new fact scientists uncover—of "I knew it all along," "Isn't that obvious?" or "My grandmother already knew that; why would anyone research such a thing?" Psychologists have found that inaccurate predictions about the future and false memories of past events cause hindsight bias.
Topics: Black Swan
Category: Wiki/Term