Black Swan
Black Swan
Taleb, while working as a derivatives investor, drew inspiration for the so-called black swan theory. He argued that such events occur exceptionally, but when they do, they cause enormous change, and that people mistakenly believe, even after the event has occurred, that it could have been predicted in advance.
When black swans were first discovered in Australia, people only knew of white swans and had no idea black swans existed. Once discovered, all of Europe — not to mention the biological community — was thrown into shock. Through scientific research, however, it became clear why black swans exist.
In other words, people had taken it for granted that swans existed only in white, but when a black swan was actually discovered, they fell into a great panic. After the discovery, when research was done properly, it became clear that, scientifically, black swans were bound to exist. Since the scientific theory was no different before or after the event, a little thought would have made it easy to realize that black swans could exist even before one was found — yet until the event occurred, no one doubted the proposition 'all swans are white.'
Depending on the translation, it is also called the 'black swan theory.' The core of the theory is that when a completely unexpected event actually occurs, it creates huge shockwaves, and in the process of analyzing it afterward, there is an exaggeration that 'the event was inevitable.'
As a basic psychological tendency, when an uncertain event occurs, people believe, through hindsight causal analysis and in a retrofitting manner, that there had been definite warning signs. The black swan theory goes further: when a particular event occurs, people think, through hindsight analysis, that it was an inevitable event and that it could have been predicted.
Topics: Economic Theory,Nassim Taleb,Antifragile
Category: Wiki/Economy