Looking at It Too Often Blinds You
Checking your stock balance every day is like measuring a tree's height every day. If you forget about it, it keeps growing.
Suppose the probability of selling impulsively is 0.1%. If I look at the stock price 100 times a day, I will sell within 10 days. But if I look once every 10 days, I can hold for 3,000 days.
I always mistime things by a day or two. If only I had looked a day later, if only I had sold two days later... Let's move just a few days later, no matter what!
Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky are famous for their research on 'loss aversion tendency.' Loss aversion refers to the bias in which people prefer to 'avoid' losses rather than 'obtain' gains. In other words, the pain felt from losing is greater than the happiness felt from gaining.
Because of short-term trend movements, we think the high price has caused a loss due to my 锚定效应, and we sell out of 损失厌恶. But no one can know the future, and since the stock market rises in the long term, this becomes a very wrong decision. This is a problem that is the main reason I always mistime things by a day or two. Because of this problem, many people sell and leave as soon as they break even.
To avoid the interference of the 锚定效应 as much as possible, the brain must remain in a state where it can measure valuation while looking at prices as little as possible. In other words, 只要本质没有改变就应该继续持有.
_z.230406 연초에 올라서 주가봐도 된다고했지 But it would have been better not to look at all.
GameStop saga
The same goes for apps/design. If you keep looking at them, they look good, but this is a trap.
话题: 锚定效应,probability,siren of the market
分类: 常青
状态: 常青/树
上级: _e.230406 주식투자 N계명